BA.2 is lifeless, alive BA.4 and BA.5. The Sars-Cov-2 variants and sublineages might quickly have a lineage worthy of the kings of France. And the procession of epidemic rebounds that accompanies it. Within the final week, the circulation of Covid-19 has been gaining velocity in France. The variety of circumstances elevated from 182 circumstances per 100,000 inhabitants, on common, over seven consecutive days on Could 26, to 233 infections per week on June 6. Identical “if there isn’t a common concern on the nationwide stage” in the present day, “Latest information confirms a slight pattern reversal”, attests this Wednesday to the departure of the Council of Ministers, Olivia Grégoire, spokeswoman for the federal government. This evokes a replica charge (R) of the virus in “1.08 throughout the territory” And, particularly “1.26 in Ile-de-France”.
The optimistic second is there, attested to by groups of modelers like Antoine Flahault’s in Geneva, regardless of current holidays that hamper information suggestions.
Mircea Sofonea, an epidemiologist from Montpellier, analyzes the French state of affairs via a partnership with the Cerba laboratory, which carries out a 3rd of the PCR checks in France. For him, this enhance is nicely supported by the brand new subvariants of the omicron BA.4 and BA.5, initially recognized in South Africa. Every new technology of the virus is transmitted sooner than the earlier one. “The expansion benefit between BA.4, BA.5 and BA.2 is similar to what we noticed between BA.2 and BA.1 in March”, he says to Launch.
This new type of the omicron variant “now accounts for a couple of quarter of recognized circumstances” in France, factors out Olivia Grégoire. It appears much more succesful than the earlier considered one of enjoying with the immune system and, subsequently, of reinfecting individuals who have already crossed with the virus or who’ve been vaccinated. Fortunately, “there isn’t a signal that she is extra harmful”, completes the researcher. In April, BA.1 had elevated the variety of individuals in intensive care to 1,660 (in opposition to 917 at the moment).
Sheaves protected, however emergencies already beneath rigidity
Normally, hospitalizations rise once more about three weeks after the variety of circumstances. However researchers don’t count on a major influence on French resuscitation providers, taking as examples Portugal and South Africa, the place BA.4 and BA.5 have already unfold. “France skilled a a lot bigger wave of BA.2 than Portugal, which ought to give the inhabitants a better residual immunity and restrict the hospital influence of the rebound that begins”, anticipates Mircea Sofonea.
If resuscitation providers should be capable to face up to shock, emergencies are rather more difficult. These providers are on strike on Tuesday to denounce their saturation and a number of other of them are already planning to shut in a single day this summer season. The prospect of a brand new wave – albeit small – already worries Jérémy, an emergency caregiver in Arles (Bouches-du-Rhône) and a member of the inter-emergency collective. “I do not understand how we’re going to do that. Presently, there may be already a scarcity of workers every single day,” he regrets.
As a result of Covid heralds yet one more workload for the emergency providers, which should separate optimistic sufferers from the remainder, in addition to the personnel who attend to them. “We can’t ask nurses to take care of 15 Covid and non-Covid sufferers. We do devoted providers, however which means accelerating workforce rotations. Ultimately, it takes extra work”, particulars Eric Thibaud, head of the emergency division on the hospital middle in Colmar (Alsace).
And if the strain rises an excessive amount of within the emergency room, the opposite providers will probably be compelled to make beds for Covid sufferers commonplace, stopping sufferers from leaving the… emergency room, based on a mechanism he is aware of nicely. “We all know that providers plan to shut beds to adapt to worker leaves. In the event that they nonetheless shut beds due to Covid, they may not be capable to obtain our sufferers and we will probably be overwhelmed,” she stated. he anticipates.
Epidemiologist Mircea Sofonea, who regrets that the influence of Covid-19 on emergencies has not been studied, fears “Native tensions this summer season. It should be remembered that that is an avoidable enhance in exercise.” he insists. For him, the present rebound shouldn’t be solely because of the look of BA.4 and BA.5; “the comfort of barrier gestures can be in query”. Since Could 16, the masks is not obligatory in France on public transport.
The campaigns for the presidential elections after which for the legislative ones put the combat in opposition to Covid and the preparation in opposition to the resurgence of the illness within the background on the political and media agenda. No opposition social gathering is ready to produce a transparent plan of action on the problem. The consensus appears to wish to encourage, loosely, a second reminder for the extra fragile forward of a probable fall wave.
On prevention, the federal government will current a brand new invoice to the Council of Ministers on June 22, Olivia Grégoire stated Wednesday. Goal : “take the continuation of all measures which are meant to fall on July thirty first.”. No “vaccination card or state of emergency” on the agenda, however measures that permit “to have the ability to intervene with braking measures if the state of affairs deteriorates after 31 July”.
Replace: 12:24 pm, with statements by authorities spokeswoman Olivia Grégoire on the finish of the Council of Ministers.