“The overall collapse threatens French society”

FIGAROVOX / GRANDSTAND- For journalist Jean-Baptiste Giraud and economist Sébastien Laye, the very essential state of affairs when it comes to safety, well being and lots of financial sectors requires civil society to take management of the state and politicians.

Jean-Baptiste Giraud is a journalist and creator of Final disaster earlier than the ApocalypseEd. Ring, September 2021.

Sébastien Laye is an entrepreneur and economist.

In relation to collapse within the French mental debate, some think about the collapse theses of Pablo Sevigne and Raphaël Stevens. Nonetheless, the theme of the decline and even the collapse of civilizations is above all a historic and anthropological argument: bear in mind Gibbons’ theses on the decline of the Roman Empire – specter of collapse that haunted his contemporaries – or these of Spengler in The decline of the West. We can even consider the lack of a Stefan Zweig who will helplessly witness the collapse of “his personal” European civilization.

Nonetheless, the image we might draw of France, based mostly on many weak indicators, is just like that painted by Spengler. Houellebecq, Onfray, Debray or Zemmour take up a few of the essential components present in Spengler. You who learn these strains, consciously or unconsciously, already know what it’s about right here, like 75% of the French who imagine that France is in decline, based on the “French Fractures” survey carried out by the Ipsos per Le Monde institute printed in September 2021.

Our nation was not already famend for the rigor and effectivity of its administration, the grasp of its salespeople, or the excellence of its sense of group. The 1000’s of particular person tragedies suffered by English or Spanish followers on the Stade de France on Saturday 28 Could, described as “accidents” by Gérald Darmanin, are simply additional proof.

Many weak indicators enable us to anticipate a doable, and maybe sadly possible, nice collective collapse.

Sebastien Laye and Jean-Baptiste Giraud

In current months – we will arbitrarily set the “start line” for the undeclared exit from the pandemic, and the lifting of the restrictive measures – many weak indicators have allowed us to anticipate a doable, and maybe sadly possible, main collective collapse.

Nice, not as a result of it’s superb, however as a result of it dangers being generalized. The logistic block of a part of the Quoted it should de facto result in the anomie of all the remaining, as a consequence of a contamination impact now extensively documented and unattainable to stem.

Well being techniques collapsed all through the world through the pandemic. Loudly in some nations, with Covid sufferers dying in ambulances in parking heaps, in tents, or typically as in a number of South American nations and in India, at dwelling, with no gram of oxygen to breathe, not to have the ability to save them however merely to make their agony (a gradual and inexorable asphyxiation) rather less horrible. In France, and in different Western nations (the Italians haven’t forgotten), the sorting made between those that would have tried to save lots of and people who have been condemned in any case is the proper signature of the collapse. Abruptly, the idea that the hospital and medical doctors might heal and save collapsed. Kinfolk, typically the sick themselves, have been instructed that they have been doomed. And that nothing can be tempted to save lots of them, it doesn’t matter what.

Two years later, the hospital, once more, is on the verge of a significant collapse. Many well being employees say within the desert that the French well being system has not recovered. Throughout the nation, saturated emergency companies reject affected person cohorts. Youngsters, the aged, but in addition women and men of all ages, have died in current months as a result of they weren’t assisted, or badly, or too late, in an emergency state of affairs, by a “troubled” well being system. When a whole lot, 1000’s of nurses, medical doctors, on the identical time tear off their coats and depart slamming the door, sufferers may have no different answer than to ask their family members for assist to get them out of there. At the least those that are fortunate sufficient to have one.

Given the present state of French manufacturing capacities and import prospects, the French electrical energy grid won’t maintain up.

Sebastien Laye and Jean-Baptiste Giraud

The power sector can also be threatened with collapse. Not that of hydrocarbons, as a result of the provision for the second stays plentiful, and ultimately, for oil as for gasoline, it’s only a query of value. Then again, the closure for security causes of just about half of EDF’s nuclear reactors, a state of affairs that the French electrical energy grid has by no means confronted, creates the situations for a number of darkening it should occur subsequent winter. France is the European nation the place the MWh is offered most costly on the electrical energy market, whereas we should always produce the most affordable electrical energy on this planet due to nuclear energy! There is sort of a bug or moderately, the massive bug is in entrance of us. Until the Ededis succeeds in imposing a rolling load sharing system on the federal government, depriving thousands and thousands of subscribers of electrical energy for at the least thirty minutes on the identical time, throughout peak hours. In reality, given the present state of French manufacturing capacities and import prospects, the French electrical energy grid won’t maintain up. At the least 10 MW of capability can be lacking to deal with the peaks of consumption subsequent winter. RTE is compelled to review (Les Echos-April 13, 2022) a surreal situation consisting of the connection to the community of 1000’s of diesel turbines, teams which can be usually used to energy delicate gear in case of failure … of the community. They might provide between 6 and 10 MW, very often. But when the online collapses anyway, who will provide this delicate gear, stripped of life jackets, mobilized for a castaway too massive to be saved from drowning?

Within the automotive business, the place France nonetheless has a task to play in Europe, massive bosses multiply boards and conferences to say that their sector, which represents thousands and thousands of jobs, however merely additionally permits for the person mobility of billions. of inhabitants and arming all provide chains on this planet with automobiles of all sizes dangers collapse. As a result of hunt for thermal machines and the insanity of requirements, the unattainable equation of all electrical energy (topic to be linked within the earlier paragraph), the shortage of digital elements, the excessive price of some uncommon and fewer uncommon supplies …

In telecommunications, the compelled use of fiber locations France far forward of all different Western nations, with nearly 70% of households eligible for broadband. However at what value! In reality, based on the telecommunications policeman, fiber doesn’t attain one in 5 appropriate households. The month-to-month (sure, month-to-month) breakdown charge reaches 3% in some locations, based on Senator Patrick Chaize. Restoration instances are set in weeks and even months. Most tech closets flip into “spaghetti dishes” that nobody understands anymore, and wild disconnects are the frequent lot of many subscribers. Lastly, the French fiber community is made up of just about … 500,000 kilometers of overhead community. On the subsequent massive storm, personal Web subscribers will attain thousands and thousands, together with plenty of extremely delicate civil or industrial functions, as they’re completely depending on the Web. The neighborhood of the Paris-Saclay agglomeration, which hosts the Polytechnique and CEA laboratories, amongst others, has simply filed a grievance towards the phone operators, a lot so is the deployment of the fiber there. Our rural areas are nearly deserted, the vaunted teleworking is chaotic there as a consequence of these infrastructural issues.

Within the tourism, resort and catering sectors, the bosses don’t await the summer time with the satisfaction of figuring out that they’ll lastly be capable to flip their financial accounts inexperienced, and thus face the tens of billions of euros of PGE which have allowed them to maintain head out of the water through the pandemic. No ! There’s a scarcity of at the least 300,000 workers within the business. Lodges are closing whole flooring. The eating places two, typically three days per week, for lack of workers. Airways are canceling flights by the 1000’s.

As for the peasants, all evils strike their heads concurrently, on the worst second. Water shortages and an explosion within the value of inputs for grain farmers, an explosion within the value of gasoline for greenhouse growers in mid-season and in winter, a scarcity of manpower to reap fruit and veggies that rot on the foot. Pandemics that by no means finish, together with a colossal and dramatic avian flu, undoubtedly the “most severe in historical past for French agriculture”, a pandemic that’s not talked about or too little for simply comprehensible causes. A swine flu threatens on our doorstep, with outbreaks found in Germany.

The worst is rarely sure. The buildup of those weak indicators, in actuality an increasing number of seen for these keen to take the difficulty to have a look at them, ought to lead us to attract the required conclusions.

Sebastien Laye and Jean-Baptiste Giraud

We shouldn’t have sufficient area to make an exhaustive listing of all these weak indicators of an upcoming collapse, and in any case already nicely superior.

Have we discovered our classes from the specter of the collapse of the monetary and banking system in 2009? Will the central banks (and can they’ve the means?), As soon as once more, be capable to react, within the occasion of a brand new seizure of the mechanism, with the brand new precedence of the combat towards inflation?

The explosion of incivility, theft, delinquency, denied by a minister whose companies however produce heaps of statistics that say precisely the alternative, shouldn’t be one other weak sign of a doable return to the legislation? From the jungle … or from the far West?

The worst is rarely sure. The buildup of those weak indicators, in actuality an increasing number of seen for these keen to take the difficulty to have a look at them, ought to lead us to attract the required conclusions.

Or the state, which is disappearing earlier than our eyes, will tomorrow give technique to a brand new hierarchy of guidelines and powers, nearer and accessible to residents, extra respectful of particular person freedom, totally guarantor of the rights and duties of every one. It should subsequently be a civil society that can regain management of the state and politicians.

Or we have already got each toes sunk within the quicksand of an enduring and deeply troubled interval, characterised by a person dealing with the state alone (and crushed by its paperwork) who will succumb to a frenetic individualism, already nicely anchored in our society and mentality. , however which is able to attain its peak.

We should learn and take heed to Spengler simply as we should learn and take heed to the (too uncommon) political scientists and real looking economists who remind us of the realities to which we’re maybe too inclined to oppose our denial: that our capability for innovation is working out of steam, that the prospects for social development for our younger individuals are nearly nil, that dialogue between cultures shouldn’t be really easy in France, that human rights will not be so simply transposable to different cultures, that the demo it’s also a ethnoand that basic twentieth century French civilization will inevitably die like different fashions.

It has already arrived. Nothing prevents right this moment from occurring once more tomorrow.

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