The UNWTO estimates that tourism will develop at 4% in 2021, it doesn’t count on a restoration till the third quarter

Jean-Noël Escudié / P2C for Localtis

The World Tourism Group (UNWTO) publishes its conventional “World Tourism Barometer”. This challenge presents the primary outcomes for 2021 and descriptions – or makes an attempt to scratch – the outlook for 2022. In an abnormal yr, these outcomes for 2021 may very well be thought-about passable. However in actual fact, they present the persistence of the decline of world tourism. And within the context of the fifth wave of the pandemic, the prospects for 2022 are extraordinarily unsure.

2021 arrivals nonetheless 72% beneath 2019 ranges

This knowledge on world tourism is all of the extra essential as France, the world’s main vacationer vacation spot, is closely depending on their improvement. We now have seen it once more not too long ago with the very optimistic affect of the sudden return of British vacationers to the alpine ski resorts (25% attendance).

In 2021, arrivals of worldwide vacationers elevated by 4% worldwide, with 415 million worldwide arrivals, in comparison with 400 within the earlier yr. However this progress is calculated for 2020, “which would be the worst yr in tourism historical past with a 73% drop in worldwide arrivals.” Because of this, arrivals in 2021 stay 72% beneath pre-health ranges, in different phrases in comparison with the reference yr 2019. Whereas worldwide tourism has seen a slight rebound within the second half of 2021 – with a decline of ‘solely’ 62% of worldwide arrivals in In comparison with the identical interval of 2019, the decline rises to 65% in December 2021 and the UNWTO estimates that “the affect of the Omicron variant and the Covid-19 outbreak will not be but absolutely decided.”

Nonetheless, in contrast to 2020, the outcomes are very uneven throughout continents. Europe and France are doing slightly higher than the remainder of the world, even when they’re nonetheless very removed from the 2019 outcomes. In comparison with 2020, Europe and the Americas recorded the largest positive factors (+ 19% and +17 respectively). %), however in each circumstances remaining 63% beneath pre-pandemic ranges. By way of sub-regions, one of the best – or much less unhealthy – performances in 2021 are the Caribbean (+ 63% in comparison with 2020, however nonetheless 37% beneath 2019), Southern Mediterranean Europe (+ 57%) and Central America (+ 54%), the latter two zones stay 54% and 56% decrease than in 2019. Alternatively, the Center East fell by one other 24% in comparison with 2020. However that is primarily the Asia-Pacific area, which explains the world common enhance of 4%. Worldwide vacationer arrivals are certainly 65% decrease than in 2020 and 94% decrease than in 2019.… Suffice it to say that worldwide tourism has nearly disappeared in these territories, “many locations stay closed to overseas journey. obligatory”.

A slight enhance in tourism revenue

The outcomes when it comes to receipts from tourism are barely higher.

The financial contribution of tourism in 2021 – measured when it comes to GDP of direct tourism and subsequently together with home tourism – is subsequently estimated at $ 1,900 billion. Right here, too, the determine is larger than 1,600 billion in 2020 (+ 19%), however nonetheless very removed from the pre-crisis determine of three,500 billion.

If we persist with the revenues from worldwide tourism exports alone, it “might exceed $ 700 billion in 2021, a slight enchancment over 2020 as a result of enhance in journey bills.” however that is lower than half of the 1.7 trillion recorded in 2019. “

In flip, the common degree of receipts for worldwide arrivals ought to attain $ 1,500 in 2021, in comparison with $ 1,300 in 2020 (+ 15%). The UNWTO explains this progress with “a number of financial savings accrued and longer keep instances and better costs for transport and lodging”. Right here, too, France reveals a slightly higher efficiency when it comes to tourism spending in 2021. The decline of the latter in comparison with 2019 would in actual fact be “solely” 37%.

“Home tourism continues to gas the restoration of the sector”

Wanting forward, the traits are fairly unsure in a context that’s nonetheless troublesome to decipher. Nonetheless, “the most recent indications from the UNWTO professional group point out that almost all tourism specialists (61%) count on higher prospects for 2022”. Among the many members of the professional group, 58% count on a rebound in 2022, primarily in Q3, and 42% count on a possible rebound solely in 2023. An indication of fragility of forecasts on this space: in January 2022, a transparent majority of UNWTO specialists (64% ) believes that the return of worldwide arrivals to 2019 ranges is not going to happen till 2024 or later, whereas 45% thought so within the September 2021 survey, which is earlier than the fifth wave.

For its half, the UNWTO Confidence Index reveals indicators of a slight decline in January-April 2022. Certainly, “the latest wave of Covid-19 and the Omicron variant are anticipated to disrupt the restoration and undermine confidence in early 2022, figuring out that international locations are reintroducing journey bans and restrictions concentrating on particular markets ”. Relying on the geographic space, UNWTO eventualities predict a rise in worldwide vacationer arrivals of 30% to 78% in comparison with 2021. Nonetheless, regardless of this anticipated enhance, these ranges will nonetheless be 50% to 63% decrease in comparison with these earlier than the pandemic.

Lastly, as seen in France, the UNWTO believes that ‘home tourism continues to gas the restoration of the sector in an growing variety of locations, particularly these with giant inside markets. as outside actions, nature merchandise and rural tourism are among the many main tourism traits that may proceed to characterize tourism in 2022 ”.

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